CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-08-08T03:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-08-08T03:23ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48024/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and not yet in LASCO C3 before a DSN gap begins at 2026-08-08T05:00Z. The CME is visible to the N/NW in GOES CCOR-1 but heavily obscured by the pylon. The CME is best seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption on the north central disk; the full eruption spans approximately N28E35 to N08W00, centered ~N20E10 in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is observed as filament ejecta and double ribbon flare in SDO AIA 304 first lifting around 2026-08-08T00:48Z and fully erupting at 2026-08-08T02:10Z. The CME is also seen as a prominence on the NE limb of STEREO A EUVI 195/304. Dimming, field line movement, and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 171/193. | Characterized by a jump in B_total from 5.6nT to 9.8nT, with B_z initially flipping northward and southward +-5nT. Alongside a jump in speed from ~350km/s to ~400km/s, density from 3.07p/cc to 7.09p/cc, and temperature from 45.3kK to 167kK.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-11T10:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-11T14:19Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33333 - 5.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 35.57 hour(s)
Difference: -3.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-08-09T22:58Z
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